Standardized values of the failure probability of building structures

Taking into account the variable nature of load-bearing capacity and loads, checking the design reliability of building structures leads to ensuring that the probability of occurrence of the limit state should not exceed the target (permissible) value. This method is known as the probabilistic limit state verification method. There are simpler methods for checking limit states for engineering calculations, the most popular of which is the method of reliability factors. However, all existing methods for checking limit states and, accordingly, methods for ensuring the design reliability of building structures are based on the probabilistic method. For this reason, research and the normative consolidation of acceptable failure probabilities are one of the primary tasks of the scientific community and national authorities in the field of developing norms and rules. Based on an analytical review of the research, a description of the probability of failure and the reliability index as measures of design reliability is presented and provisions are fixed on the basis of which it is necessary to assign a target value for the probability of failure, including direct and indirect consequences of failure.

The conditions for assigning target failure probabilities in regulatory documents are systematized and the results of comparing the numerical values of reliability indices are presented. The most complete methodology for determining the target values of the probability of failure is set out in the international standard ISO 2394. This standard contains guidelines for determining target reliability indices based on economic optimization, analysis of individual or public risk, as well as the quality of life index. However, this methodology, and in particular the numerical values of reliability indices, require adaptation taking into account the economic characteristics of a particular country.

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